A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
